Thursday, April 2, 2020

How dangerous is the COVID-19 coronavirus?

How dangerous is the COVID-19 coronavirus?  

[A slightly edited and restructured answer that I originally wrote on Quora in response  to the question, but which was summarily deleted by them, without explanation. Also, while there is new data on infections and deaths, etc. - which I included as regards the US death toll from Covid-19 after 4 months - these have not really changed the argument.]

That depends on many factors.
The Guardian (March 21) and some other news media stated that about 80% of people who get Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the same] – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment.[1]
Also, the amount of the coronavirus that you first take in may play a factor in the severity of your symptoms (other aspects being equal).[2]
CDC (March 18): among patients with COVID-19 in the United States the estimated fatality rate among persons aged 19 years and younger was 0%; 1% among persons aged 20–54 years; 1% to 3% among persons aged 55-64 years, and ranging from 10% to 27% among persons aged 85 and up.[3] 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older.[4]
Live Science reported (March 30) that,
a recent study of COVID-19 cases in the United States estimated a mortality rate of 10% to 27% for those ages 85 and over, 3% to 11% for those ages 65 to 84, 1% to 3% for those ages 55 to 64 and less than 1% for those ages 20 to 54. South Korea, which conducted more than 140,000 tests for COVID-19, officials found a overall fatality rate of 0.6%[5]
As of March 23 Italy and South Korea had reported no fatalities for the 10 to 19 years old age group. China reported that 0.2 percent of cases for these young people end in death[6]
Another study of COVID-19 cases in Wuhan, China, estimates that the death rate among people who were infected and developed symptoms was 1.4 percent. The study, reported yesterday in Nature Medicine, suggests that the overall CFR—including people who are infected but do not develop symptoms—will prove to be much lower in the United States than many people feared[7] .
The worldwide fatality rate (Feb. 29) for those 80 years old and up was 14.8%, almost twice that of those 70-79 years old (8.0%) and which itself is over twice as much as those aged 60-69 years old (3.6%), which rate is over twice as much as those aged 50-59 years old (1.3%) while for those aged 40-49 years old it is 0.4%, and 0.2% for those aged 10-39 years old. 
As regards health conditions, those must vulnerable are those with Cardiovascular disease, then Diabetes, and after that Diabetes, Hypertension, then Cancer.[8]
Relevant to that, more than 99% of Italy's coronavirus fatalities were people who suffered from previous medical conditions.[9]  Also, three out of four young NYC Coronavirus fatalities had other medical conditions (Mar. 27).[8] 
More on worldwide demographic and health condition fatality rates: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
Therefore the COVID-19 coronavirus is especially dangerous to the aged and those with certain per-existing conditions, these being the most vulnerable.
However, since you use the word “dangerous” in regards to life then we should consider other dangers to the same. In regard to that, being in the womb means one is very vulnerable as it places one in danger death, especially since America murders over 2,000 of those souls a day[11].
And if we should consider a comparative perspective,  the US death toll from Covid-19 after 4 months (Jan-April) was almost 63,000 [12] (4–30), that is still less than the cumulative (year after year)  deaths from motor vehicle accidents (up to 90 people deaths per day,[13] 39,404 people in 2018 - though many are omitted) which figures to be  a 12.04 death rate per 100,000 population[14]).
And out of 169,936 preventable deaths in 2017, an estimated 125,300 preventable injury-related deaths were in homes and communities, which constitutes about 75% of all preventable injury-related deaths[15].
In addition, obesity and being overweight are together the second leading cause of preventable death in the United States[16].
Meanwhile, though we are to seek to prevent deaths, what is most important is who and what we live for, and where we will spend eternity. May all repent and believe.
Hope this helps. Peace by Jesus 
Footnotes
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An additional Quora post on this issue is here, by the grace of God:
No, and that has been made increasingly clear. The predicted dire need for hospital beds did not overall materialize, while most of those who were infected and died have been among those who are quarantined, especially elder care facilities which account for over 40% of US deaths.[1] If close to half of all COVID-19 deaths have occurred in long-term care facilities then that means that the 99.4 percent of the country that does not reside in those facilities is roughly half as likely to die of COVID-19,[2] even to the fatality rate of COVID-19 probably being “0.13 percent for people outside nursing homes and 0.26 percent — identical to the CDC best estimate — when people in nursing homes were included.”[3]
Even with a worse-case example - far removed from the average[4] - Word Meters finds that New York City (May 1) had an Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) of 1.4% and a 0.28% crude mortality rate (CMR) to date, or 279 deaths per 100,000 population.[5] (In New York city there is normally a a death every 9.1 minutes.[6] and primarily due to its COVID-19 death rate New York state constitutes about 29% of all reported COVID-19 deaths as of May 26, with over 19,000 deaths per million,[7] and which heavily affects the overall mortality rate of the US.[8])
Up to about 80 percent of those infected with COVID-19 are estimated to be silent carriers, [9][10] meaning they show no symptoms (the New York City labor and delivery unit found 88 percent of infected patients had no symptoms, [11] while over 600 sailors on the coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt tested positive, yet 60% of them had no symptoms such as fever, fatigue, or cough,[12]and in four U.S. state prisons nearly 3,300 inmates test positive for coronavirus yet 96% were without symptoms[13] and or recover without medical care[14]) Which means that the infected fatality rate is much lower than the misleading case fatality rate that is usually quoted.
Meanwhile the vast majority of those who die because it are 65 years-old or more[15] and with almost 25% of all documented Covid-assigned (which does not mean the subject was tested for Covid) fatalities in the US (91,976 as of May 18 at 8:49PM EDT) are from New York (28,480)[16] and according to one report 54% of all U.S. deaths were in the 100 counties in or within 100 miles of NYC.
And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that almost 90 percent of U.S. coronavirus patients who have been hospitalized had underlying health problems, or comorbidities.[17]
And which relates to the issue of inaccurate fatality numbers, partly due to the problem of determining the actual cause of death and the CDC guidelines which allow for reporting COVID-19 as the “probable” or “presumed” cause on the death certificate if the certifier even suspects COVID-19 was likely (e.g., the circumstances were compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), the cause.[18] Which resulted in NYC suddenly adding 3,700 additional people to its death count[19](also, Federal legislation pays hospitals higher Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients and treatment[20]), leading to charges of over-counting[21][22] while Pennsylvania removed some after coroner reports.[23] Later, Colorado’s Health Department revised their official coronavirus death count from 1,150 as of May 15 downward to 878 (a reduction of 23.7 percent) and created two separate distinguishing categories, one of people who died directly because of the virus and another of people who had COVID-19 at their time of death but died of other causes that may not be attributable to the virus.[24][25] However, some others believe the problem is more that of under-counting. [26]
Also, another study finds that the risk of coronavirus spreading in schools is 'extremely low'.[27]
And while states continue to parrot the “stay sheltered” mantra, research shows that sunlight destroys virus quickly[28], and even a Department of Homeland Security official affirmed that increasing temperatures, humidity and sunlight are detrimental to coronavirus saliva droplets on surfaces and in the air.[29] Also, over 600 doctors signed onto a letter sent to President Trump favoring an end the "national shutdown," referring to it as being a "mass casualty incident" with "exponentially growing health consequences."[30]
Yet miles upon miles of parks and public waterfronts are shutdown, and for too long NY put infected persons in nursing homes[31] (and as of April 26, about 40 percent of COVID-19 deaths were in the state of New York alone. New Jersey was in second place, with nearly 5,900[32]yet the death rate is uncritically employed to justify nationwide lockdowns) while in states such as Illinois law-breaking prisoners were released from their “quarantine” - including some “high risk” sexual offenders[33] and some convicted of murder - [34] and almost a third of county jail inmates have been released from facilities during the coronavirus pandemic.[35] Meanwhile over 2,000[36] of the most vulnerable souls a day in “quarantine” - their mother’s womb - are murdered, many by the same persons claim to be for protecting the vulnerable.
Moreover, the extremely restrictive all-ages long-term response to COVID-19 simply has no precedent in American history except (to a degree) that of the 1918 flu (in which baseball was still played) which up t 675,000 deaths are attributed.[37]
The Asian flu pandemic of 1957-1958 resulted in a estimated 116,000 deaths in America[38] (followed by the Hong Kong flu with about est. 100,000 American deaths in 1968–69), when at about 173,000,000, the population size in 57-58 was close to half of what it is now (330,541,000, rounded figures).
Meaning that not only was the infection death rate much higher than for COVID-19, but there would have to be about 200,000 COVID-19 est. deaths to be comparable to the Asian flu as regards percentaged of population. Yet that would simply make it basically equal as concerns the numbers of deaths in proportion to population size, but to justify the "CovidCaptivity," one would have to argue that the Asian flu should have necessitated a response like that to COVID-19. The Soviets would have favored that for sure.
The question then is, where was the COVID-19 comparative response in 57-58 in proportion to its threat? Yes, the 116,000 deaths in America to the Asian flu was for the whole year, yet even if we reach about 200,000 deaths (we pray not) for COVID-19 then that type of equality would still mean that the extremely restrictive all-ages long-term response to COVID-19 simply has no precedent in American history, except to a degree with the far more deadly (550,000 to 675,000 Americans, or 0.66% of the population) 1918 flu.
And during which medics found that severely ill flu patients nursed outdoors recovered better than those treated indoors. A combination of fresh air and sunlight seems to have prevented deaths among patients; and infections among medical staff. [39]
Finally, the long-term cost for the questionable[40]“cure” - as meaning preventing deaths via the stay-sheltered COVID captivity - will be more costly in lives and money [41] including psychosocial consequences[42] than a more moderate response that would allow for a faster rise in cases but a better decrease and overall a more healthy populace in the long run. [43][44][45]
Economically, estimates project total losses in state and local revenue of up to 45 percent, effecting 90,000 nonfederal-government entities that provide and pay for most of the government services that Americans receive.[46] And while states look to the Federal government to bail them out, the additional costs and declining revenues stemming from Covid-19 are expected to produce a 2020 budget deficit in excess of $4.2 trillion.[47]
And most of government income comes from taxes, via businesses and those who are employed ( income taxes, payroll taxes, and corporate taxes)[48], yet businesses are failing across America, and in New York alone the governor stated that small businesses constitute “90 percent of New York's businesses” and “more than 100,000 have shut permanently since the pandemic hit.”[49]
Moreover (as of May 20), with 2.43 million in America filing for an unemployment,[50] the rate is at least 20%.[51] Also, according to one meta-analysis of 42 studies involving 20 million people, the risk of death increases 63 percent when one loses their job, and that for every one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, there are 37,000 deaths, mainly from heart attacks, but another 1,000 from suicides and another 650 from homicides.[52]
And as concerns just suicide, we have reports such as “Calls to suicide and help hotline in Los Angeles increase 8,000% due to coronavirus,”[53] and “Doctors at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek say they have seen more deaths by suicide during this quarantine period than deaths from the COVID-19 virus,”[54]
Yet while we seek to save lives, 7,000 Americans die every day in the US from a wide range of causes [55] - besides over 2,000 a day being slain in the “quarantine” of their mother’s womb[56] - my prayer is that all sinners will come to repentance and faith in the risen Lord Jesus and be baptized and follow Him.
Hope this helps. PeaceByJesus
Footnotes